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12
2025
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01
In 2025, China's commercial aerospace industry will usher in a period of explosive satellite launches
Minyin Securities released its outlook for the technology industry in 2025, pointing out that the global commercial aerospace
Cai Zhong She December 13 news
Minyin Securities released the 2025 outlook for the technology industry, pointing out that the global commercial aerospace market is steadily growing, and China's commercial aerospace market maintains double-digit high-speed growth. In 2025, China's commercial aerospace will usher in a satellite launch explosion period.
The activity of space launches in countries around the world is continuously increasing, and rocket technology is constantly breaking through. According to SpaceStats statistics, the number of global orbital launches jumped from 81 times in 2013 to 224 times in 2023. From a national perspective, the US, China, and Russia have long occupied the top three spots on the global launch list, with the US increasing from 30 launches in 2017 to 116 launches in 2023, accounting for more than half of the global launch activities that year (52%). China's rocket launches also increased from 18 times in 2017 to 67 times in 2023. From a technological perspective, liquid rockets are considered the future trend, with liquid oxygen and methane becoming the main choice. In 2024, SpaceX's Falcon 9 set a new record for first-stage rocket reuse with 24 times on December 4, and the Starship successfully captured the first stage of the Super Heavy rocket with a mechanical arm for the first time during its fifth flight on October 13, indicating a further step in the exploration of low-cost reusable rocket technology.
The number of satellites in orbit is continuously increasing, and countries are starting a "land-grabbing competition." According to SIA statistics, the number of commercial satellites deployed globally in 2023 was 2,781 (up 20% year-on-year), which is seven times that of 2019. From a national perspective, it shows that the US, driven by SpaceX, leads the world, while China remains firmly in second place. As of June 19, 2024, there are over 10,000 active satellites in orbit globally, of which about 90% are in low Earth orbit, and the safe capacity for low Earth orbit may be around 60,000 to 100,000 satellites. Therefore, countries around the world are starting a wave of low Earth orbit satellite constellation construction. Currently, there are three giant low Earth orbit satellite constellations in China with over 10,000 satellites: Qianfan, State Grid, and Honghu, among which Qianfan has achieved 54 satellites in orbit networking on December 5, 2024.
Minyin Securities believes that China's satellite launches are about to enter an explosive period, and commercial aerospace is ushering in a golden age. According to news, as of December this year, the total number of low Earth orbit satellites announced by China has reached 80,000. In addition, China has further improved its high-density commercial satellite launch infrastructure (satellite manufacturing, rocket research and development, launch site construction). Furthermore, national and local policies promoting the development of the commercial aerospace and satellite internet industries are frequently issued. Therefore, it can be anticipated that 2025 will be an explosive period for China's satellite launches and satellite networking construction, and commercial aerospace is about to welcome a golden age.
Launch,Aerospace,Satellite
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